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Brett Favre Section
It's hard to imagine that the Gnome is dedicating an entire
section to Brett, but if everyone else is, why can't the
Gnome. There's no need to recap Favre's performance in 2007,
we all know how good he looked. Rather let's focus on the
possible scenarios, especially since this is the only place
we'll mention Brett. Option 1, Brett returns to Green Bay. Odds are Brett
would split time or possibly even be Aaron Rodgers'
backup...at least for a week. Favre's still too talented and
Rodgers is too green for that to last. Favre would quickly
unseat Rodgers as long as the Pack stayed in the running. This
option is seemed unlikely at first, especially given the attitude of
the leadership in Green Bay. They would be forced to eat a lot
of crow, but I guess another trip to the playoffs might be
worth it.
Option2, Favre is traded This is somewhat likely,
but the field of suitors is small and Brett is rather picky.
Anyway, any team, it would take Brett a few weeks to get
accustomed to a new system and a new group of receivers. A
trade is most likely to happen when and if a team loses their
number 1 QB. If traded, Favre would be hard pressed to rank in
the top 10, at least for the first have of the season, but he
could be a nice option during the playoff run.Option 3, Favre retires...again. At first, this seemed
unlikely, but chances that this will happen, grows with each
passing day. The Pack have been talking about giving Brett a
front office job...to keep him in football and to save face.
Obviously, this would kill Favre's fantasy value...at least
until the next team comes calling.If you have to draft Favre, then so be it. Just make certain
you have a real starter, because this is still a mess.
Buffalo
QB- Right now, it
looks like Trent Edwards will start at QB for Buffalo. In his
rookie season, Edwards started 9 games and threw for 1600
yards. His seven TDs & eight picks were what you would expect
from a rookie. Edwards has a strong arm and but won't improve
enough to crack the top 20. Still, he could average 180 yards
a game and throw 14-15 TDs, if he starts all 16. Backup JP
Losman is falling out of favor. Now entering his 5th season
with the Bills, he looks like a career backup, at least at
Buffalo.
RB-If Marshawn Lynch
can avoid the NFL doghouse and continue to stay healthy, you
are looking at a top 5 running back. Lynch looked great his
rookie season, and he's in one of the best situations for a
fantasy running back. With limited competition, you can expect
Lynch to get most of the carries and all the rushing TDs. The
Bills like him around the goal line, so there won't be anyone
stealing his TD plunges. Having a defensive minded coach,
means Lynch will see plenty of carries and if the QB situation
works out, defenses won't be able to sell out against the run.
Lynch is a very capable receiver and could easily top 350
receiving yards,
if word out of the Bill's camp stays true and they focus a
little more on getting him the ball out in space. Backing up
Lynch is Fred Jackson, a late round pick at best.
WR/TE-Lee Evans is
still Buffalo's main
target although he suffered because of last year's QB
carousel. In 3 games last years, Evans put up almost half his
yards and 4 of his 5 TDs. If you started him then, he was
great. Otherwise, he was a complete bust. Because of this,
most owners will shy away from Evans. A very sneaky 4th or 5th
wideout, he has the talent, if not the QB to break into the
top 30. Roscoe Parrish will start opposite Evans, but he's
best suited as their #3 WR. Rookie James Hardy is drawing most
of the fantasy attention and could be picked ahead of Evans in
some drafts. Don't fall for the hype. This is not great
situation for a break out season for a rookie WR, but he has
value in dynasty leagues. As far as tightends...what tight
ends?
Miami
QB- For the most
part, you want to stay away from Miami players, at least
for this season. For the last 2 years, their offensive line
has given up at least 40 sacks and rookie Jake Long won't make
that much of a difference this year. At QB, the Dolphins are a
bit of a mess. Journeyman Josh McCown and second year QB John
Beck are battling for the top spot with rookie Chad Henne
waiting in the wings. Best guess is McCown will get the
opening nod, but will give way to one of the youngster fairly
early. Especially after Miami losses every game in September.
If you are in a dynasty league, Henne might look good in 3 or
4 years. With the new regime, Beck has lost his backing, and
McCown is just a stop gap.
RB-In only seven
games last season, Ronnie Brown put up numbers good enough to
crack the top 25. Too bad he destroyed his knee. Brown thinks
he will be back by the start of the season, but let's be
honest, it will be 2009 before he's close to 100%. That means
head case Ricky Williams will get most of the carries. Ricky
is now 31 and is a major question mark, both on and off the
field. If you want to take a flyer, look at Jalen Parmele from
Toledo.At 6 foot and 220, this could be an every down back, at
least till Ronnie gets healthy. But you the Tuna, and rookie,
so don't bet too much on this youngster.
WR/TE-Not only is Miami's
QB & RB situation a mess, their WRs suck. Ted Ginn is the best
fantasy prospect, but with only 34 catches last season, he's
got a long way to go to break into the top 30. Former Jag
Ernest Wilford will most likely start opposite of Ginn and is
their most experienced wideout. If Ernest couldn't separate
himself from all those other "wantabees" in Jacksonville,
don't expect too much from him at Miami. TE Anthony Fasono is
a Parcell's guy and might be there best receiver at 450 yards
and 5 TDs.
New England
QB- So far, we've covered
two of the worst QB situations, let's jump to the best. Tom is Terrific.
Pure and simple. If he was your QB last season, you made the
playoffs. Now for the bad news, he won't throw for 48 TDs this
season and the Pats won't go 16-0 during the regular season.
But you knew that deep in your heart. Face it, last season was
one of those "magical years", you can't expect it every
season.Over the last 6 games of the season, Tom only threw 12
TDs and 1747 yards, so he cooled down quite a bit (he threw
for 21 TDs & 1771 yards the first 6 games). For 2008, expect
Tom Terrific to throw for 4,000 yards and 33 TDs. Top notch
numbers, but a far cry from 48 TDs .In fact, it's a safe bet
that some QB (maybe Manning or Brees) with throw more TDs than
Tom.
RB-Last season, Laurence Maroney
could have been a beast, but instead, most saw him as a
fantasy bust. It wasn't until week 11 that Maroney scored his
first TD. By then, most owners had soured on Maroney, and
rightfully so. Vulture Sammy Morris was stealing all of
Maroney's TDs and probably would have finished with 8 or 9 TDs
if not for a week 6 injury. For 2008, the Gnome is looking for
a little more Maroney, but Sammy will still vulture some TDs.
Maroney should easily put up 1,000 yards, but will struggle to
put up more than 6 TDs.
WR/TE-With 23 TDs and
almost 1500 yards, it's impossible not to look at Randy Moss
as the top WR in fantasy football. Moss returned to Hall of
Fame form in his first game as a Patriot (9 receptions, 183
yards & 1 TD), and from he kept his foot on the throttle.
Brady immediately made Moss his go to guy and more than a few
times simply chunked the ball in Moss' general direction, with
confidence that Randy would pull down anything remotely close.
Any pick after four, if Randy is still on the board, Take Him.
Problem is he may go higher than that. Opposite Randy is the
workhorse of the Patriots receiving corps, Wes Welker. Wes had
112 catches for 1175 and 8 TDs. While Randy patrolled the
boundaries, Wes worked the middle. Look for this trend to
continue. When you rank your receivers, put Wes just outside
the top 10. A sneaky pick could be Jabbar Gaffney. Gaffney
will battle Kelley Washington for Donte Stallworth's old role.
Even as a fourth receiver, Gaffney had 5 TD catches, so Brady
has confidence in him near the goal.TE Ben Watson started hot,
but cooled a good bit as the season went on. Use him more as a
top notch fill inand not a top 10 TE.
New York Jets
QB- One of the
reasons the Pats will win the AFC East, is they are the only
team with a stable QB situation. Right now it looks like
Kellan Clemens will get the starting nod. But, it's anyone's
guess when or if Chad Pennington will be called on to start..
Combined, the two Jets' QB threw for 3300 yards & 15 TDs. They
also threw 19 interceptions. While Pennington outperformed
Clemens, the Jets' brass think Clemens has more upside and
that's why they've given him the edge in the depth chart.
Regardless of who the starter is, you are looking at a
mediocre backup.
RB-Thomas Jones
will be viewed as a disappointment, but he did have over 1100
yards and 300 carries. From a fantasy point of view, Jones
finished inside the top 25 and only trailed Brandon Jacobs,
Fred Taylor, and Steven Jackson by a few points. Jones'
problem, besides a season opening injury, was he only crossed
the goaline once. Not surprising considering the Jets only had
6 rushing TDs all season. To address this, the Jets have
boosted their offensive line with Alan Faneca and Damien
Woody, but they have also added two more backs in Musa Smith
and Jesse Chatman. All told, the Jets will have a better
running attack and Thomas Jones could be a real sneaky rick
finishing in the top15 .
WR/TE-Even though
the Jets' have questions at QB, their receivers are solid. Wideout Jerricho Cotchery
came on strong last season especially when Coles went down to
injury. Cotchery finished in the top 25 and should be close to
that again. Coles, if he remains healthy, will cut into
Cotchery's numbers a little. Both should finish in the top 30
and Coles might be pverlooked. At TE, Chris Baker will have a
few catches, but Baker is pouting over the Jet's top pick TE
Dustin Keller, a nice pickup in keeper leagues.
Baltimore
QB- Same song, Next verse. Who's
the starting QB here. Air McNair is gone and the Kyle Boller
should be the starter, but the most impressive QB so far has
been Troy Smith. Add to that, the Ravens drafted Joe Flacco in
the first round and you have another QB mess. Odds are, both
Boller and Smith will see some time as starter.during the
first half of the season. If the Ravens don't start fast, the
rook, Flacco will probably finish the season. With new
offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's offense, the Ravens hope
to boost a mediorce passing attack, but with the QB situation
it's doubtful. Dynasty leagues should look at Flacco as he
looks like a future stud.
RB-RB Willis McGahee finished in
the top 10 last season and is in a great situation to do so
again. Willis is the Ravens main offensive threat and only
undersized rookie Ray Rice poises any threat. With 1400
combined yards and 8TDs last season, McGahee will most
certainly be drafted in the late first round and makes a nice
number 1 RB. in a move that will please most
Ravens fans. McGahee will bring the break away speed that
Jamal seemed to have lost, while still being able to carry the
ball 30 times a game. Granted, Willis has the same
health questions that Lewis had, but all in all, he's an
upgrade for a solid running attack and should finish in the
top 15 running backs.
WR/TE-At 34, most consider Derrick Mason
over the hill, but don't count him out yet. This 11 year
veteran posted 1087 yards and 5 TDs, and for those in points
per receptions, 103 catches. Mason, regardless of the QB has
good value as a number 3 WR amd might be overlooked because of
his age. Opposite of Mason, 4th year receiver, Mark Clayton
will get the starting nod, but keep an eye on Demetrius
Williams.Clayton looked to be on his way to a break out season
after the 2006 campaign, but struggled last year, mostly due
to lingering injuries. Williams is willimg to step in if
either starters go down. TE Todd Heap only played in 6 games
last season, but should be ranked in the top 10. Heap is
healthy now and the young QBs will look his way often.
Cincinnati
QB- Carson Palmer had a rock
solid season last year (except for those critical weeks 13, 14
& 16) and he should again be ranked as a top 10 QB. Palmer
threw for 4100 yards and 26 TDs, For fantasy owners, Carson
was a stud during the regular season, but a complete bust
during fantasy playoffs. That coupled with Chad's antics may
lower how others view Palmer, but don't hesitate to pull the
trigger on him. In his last 3 seasons, Palmer has averaged
4,000 yards and 28 TDs, and there is no reason this year won't
follow suit. If you can't get Peyton or Brady, take
Palmer and feel fortunate.
RB-Rudi seemed like a lock to
rush for
12 TDs and 1300 yards last season. He had done it 3 years in a
row, but injuries caught up with him and he's beginning to
age. Because of this, the stock on Rudi is falling, but don't
let it fall to far. Rudi doesn't turn 29 till
October, and he was in great shape for the team's minicamps.
Another plus in Rudi's favor is he's the only RB not still
nursing an injury from last year. Kenny Watson missed minicamp,
and Chris Perry & Kenny Irons didn't play last season.
WR/TE-Sure Chad Johnson gets all the
press, but it was T.J. who got the TDs last year. Both
finished in the top 10, but Houshmandzadeh was much more
consistent. Chad score 5 of his eight TDs in two games (versus
the Titans & the Browns) while T.J. scored TDs in 9 of the
first 10 weeks. Sure Ocho Cinco is all about the flash, but
week in & week out T.J. is top notch. Either or both and you
can't go wrong with the league's best WR tandem. Draft picks
Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell will make the final roster,
but if you are a gambler, keep an eye on Antonio Chatman as
the possible #3 WR. The Bengals don't have enough balls for
the TE spot, but former Colt Ben Utecht has the hands and
could be of some late round value.
Cleveland
QB- Talk about coming out of
nowhere. Opening game last year had Charlie Frye holding down
the fort till Brady Quinn was ready. On to the scene bursts
Derek Anderson and the Browns suddenly become a force to deal
with. Anderson threw for 3700 yards and 29 TDs on his way to
the ProBowl. With his TD totals, Anderson outperformed such
fantasy stars as Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb & Eli Manning.
The big question is can he do it again, or is he a one year
wonder. For the Gnome, it's somewhere in the middle. Anderson
should be fairly close, but expect a little drop off in the TD
area. Look for 3800 yards and 26 TDs. Keep in mind, the Browns
are in the same situation the Chargers were a couple of years
ago with Brees & Rivers. Because of this, they will pull
Derek, if he struggles more than one game, they have too much
tied up in Brady to keep him on the bench.
RB-Another surprise for the
Browns was Jamal Lewis. After leaving Baltimore, Lewis had a
combined 1500 yards and 11 TDs. Finishing in the top 10 of RBs,
Jamal was a nice gift to those owners who drafted him as their
number 2 or 3 RB. Most figured Lewis was done, but it looks
like he might have 1 or 2 years left. A big plus for Jamal is
his situation. Jamal had 238 more carries than his
backup, Jason Wright. Plus, he was the number one receiver out
of the backfield. In the days of spilt backfields, it's rare
to find a back getting that many touches and will keep him in
the top 15 even if age is creeping up on him.
WR/TE-There's always talk
about wide receivers and their 3rd year being a breakout year.
Well in Braylon Edwards' case, his 3rd year was a monster. In
most leagues, Braylon only trailed Moss & T.O. in receiver
points. Recording almost 1300 yards on 80 catches and 16 TDs
will kick Edwards into everyone's top 5, and rightfully so.
Opposite Edwards will be Donte Stallworth, for as long as he
can remain healthy. Stallworth is a nice addition for the
Browns, considering Joe Jurevicius is almost done, but
Stallworth himself is a injury risk. For that reason, you
shouldn't look at him as anything more that a number 3 WR &
Jurevicius (who volunteered to be pulled out of the starting
lineup) as a number 4. Also keep in mind that we haven't
mentioned the Browns' number one receiver, at least in
receptions, Kellan Winslow. KW2 had over 1100 yards and 82
catches, while recording 5 TDs. Sure he has some baggage, but
this guy is a top 5 TE in anyone's book and could have easily
valuted all the way up to number 1.The Browns have one of
fantasy football's best group of receivers as long as the
coaching staff stays with Anderson at QB.
Pittsburgh
QB- Big Ben Roethlisberger was
another player who had a monster season in 2007. Ben easily
surpassed his career best of 18 TDs, by throwing for more TDs,
32, than anyone other than Romo or Brady. That's right, Ben
threw more TDs than Peyton. Understand that will not happen
two years in a row, Ben's 32 TD was an apparition. Still, he
looks like he should throw for about 3300 yards and 24 TDs.
Good enough to finish right around number 10. And who knows,
he should sneak a couple in giving him a chance to break the
top 10.
RB-Fast Willie Parker finished
the year just outside the top 10 with 1500 combined yards and
2 TDs. A far cry from 2006 when he had 16 TDs, but hey the
Gnome called it. Willie is a nice fantasy back who will rush
for 100 yards 6-7 times a season, but with the Steelers
mindset, out he comes close to the goal. If you need a decent
number 2 RB, then Willie is your man, but there's no way he's
a number 1. In fact his numbers may even drop again, thanks to
rookie Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall was one of the best
backs in the draft, and Pittsburgh was lucky to pick him up.
From a pure football point of view, this was a great move and
just what the Steelers needed. From a fantasy point of view,
he's a great handcuff who should score 6-8 TDs and put up
close to 500 yards. A nice stretch pick might be Mewelde
Moore, formerly of the Vikings. Moore is a solid back who just
needs the opportunity.
WR/TE-For the first time in a
while, Pittsburgh's number one point producer at the wide out
spot was not Hines Ward. Ward did lead the team in catches,
but it was 2nd year WR Santonio Holmes that was the better
receiver in yards and TDs. Both Ward and Holmes are nice
number 2 WRs, but Holmes clearly has the most upside. Look for
Ward to finish in the top 30 and Holmes should be about 10
spots ahead of him. Dynasty leaguers should take a real look
at rookie Limas Sweed. Big Ben wanted a tall, talented
receiver, and at 6'4" Ben got his man in Sweed. TE Heath
Miller is a really nice 2nd tier TE. He's not missed a game in
three years and has averaged 450 yards and 6 TDs since making
it into the NFL.
Houston
QB- Not a bad season for
first year starter Matt Schaub. Matt finished just outside the
top 20 throwing for 2200 yards and 9 TDs. Not bad at all
considering he only played in 11 games and his backup, Sage
Rosenfels, finished four of those 11. In his first four games,
Matt out produced other young QBs like Cutler and Eli,
then the injury bug got him. Schaub struggled after that and
so did fantasy owners who did know for certain whether to
start Matt or Sage. Speaking of Sage, When Matt was down, the
Texans' offense didn't miss a beat with Rosenfels at the helm.
Dynasty owners, pick this guy up as he will be a good starter
in the future. Sneaky fact, the combination of Schaub
and Rosenfels threw for 3900 yards and 24 TDs, making the
Texans' duo a top 10 QB. Just remember to handcuff them,
'cause that offensive line is still suspect.
RB-Last year the Texans'
top runner was Ron Dayne... so they cut him. Ahman Green was
supposed to be the the full time back, but he too went down to
injury and only played in parts of 6 games. When he was
healthy, Ahman looked good, for an old guy, but staying
healthy is the big question. In an attempt offset this, the
Texans signed Chris Brown, formerly of the Titans. Does two
injury prone RBs equal 1 healthy back? Probably not in this
case. If you have to take a Texan RB, the Brown is the better
of the two and may see the goal line more often, but wait
...read on. The Texans also have Darius Walker who averaged
4.6 yards per carry last season on 58 carries, and they are
high on Chris Taylor who averaged 4.4 yards per carry in
limited time on 2006. Oh, and don't forget rookie Steve
Slaton. Looks like a fantasy mess.
Note:Many are calling Chris Taylor a sleeper pick....but
if many are saying this...is he a sleeper?
WR/TE-The Texans
have a nice passing game that revolves soley around Andre Johnson.
Talk about a perfect fantasy situation. Johnson missed 7 games
last season due to injury and was still the Texans' top
receiver in yards & TDs. Had he played a full 16, Johnson
would have been a top 3 WR. If you miss out on Moss or T.O.
try Andre. Opposite of Andre, the Texans have a couple of
options. Kevin Walter is a scrappy possession receiver and
Jacoby Jones is a young speedster with the size and moves to
break it deep. Either way one will be number 2 and the other
will be number 3, and both will be well behind Johnson. At TE,
Owen Daniels is a nice 9-12 TE who posted 63 receptions and
768 yards. A super fantasy backup, he could be a starter in
points per reception leagues.
Indianapolis
QB- Believe it or not Peyton is
going to be overlooked in your draft. Unless you have a rabid
Colts fan, Peyton will be picked behind both Brady and Romo.
Especially with his knee just being scoped, but don't let that
worry you.Only Favre has played more consecutive games than
Peyton.
Over the last 3 years he you're taking about the 2nd most
productive player in fantasy football, behind only L.T., and
surprisingly, he won't be ranked in the top 2 of his position. Peyton threw for
4000 yards and 31 TDs, plus he added a new wrinkle, he had 3
rushing TDs. Not counting the week 17 "bye", Peyton only had 1
game where he threw for less than 250 yards & 1 TD. For rock
solid QB points, it's hard not to like Peyton Sure
everyone has Brady as the top QB, but there's nothing wrong
(if you with a wry smile) let Peyton lead your team to the
league championship.
RB-Joseph Addai finished last
season as a top five running back, but heed the Gnome's
warning, he won't do that again. Addai is a nice back who
could put up another 1000 yards season, but the 12 rushing TDs
he had in 2007 was an apparition. First, Addai is a little
questionable in the health arena, second and more important,
the return of Dominic Rhodes will cost Addai both yards
and TDs. Coach Dungi has no problem pulling a back at the goal
line for fresh legs, and is a competent goal line back.
Rookie Mike Hart was in a great spot till the Colts signed
Rhodes. As it is, his value is limited to the future.
WR/TE-With questions
surrounding Marvin Harrison, WR Reggie Wayne's stock has shot
up. Reggie finished in the top 5 last season and looks to be a
lock for similar numbers. Reggie had 104 receptions for
1500 yards and 10 TDs. Last year was Reggie's first 100 catch
season, and he should easily top 90 this season. When you rank
your receivers, Reggie has to be in your top 5. Veteran Marvin
Harrison has a lot of questions and as such could fall .in
your draft. So far nothing has come of his legal problems and
it looks like he will be healthy enough to make the opening
day lineup. Still, Marvin's another year older, and he's no
longer a top #1 receiver. It's doubtful he'll drop too far in
your draft, because of his name, but if you need a good number
two, you could do worse. Anthony Gonzalez is one of the better
number 3, and he has plenty of upside. TE Dallas Clark is a
top 10 TE, recording 600 yards and 11 TDs. He may not get
double digits in TDs again, but he should easily put up 600
yards and 9 scores. The number 2 TE either Bryan Fletcher or
Gijon Robinson will also have some value.
Jacksonville
QB- In his 13 games last season, David Garrard
put up 2500 yards and 18 TDs, good enough to rank just outside
the top 15. Pretty impressive considering his mediocre
receivers. Garrard could prove to be a handy number 2 or 2
fantasy QB, but he's not a solid starter. With the Jags
conservative offense, Garrard didn't have a single 300 yard
game,and it's doubtful he will in 2008. As a backup, he's
O.K., but don't look for more.
RB-The Jags have on of the best
running attacks in NFL. The combination of Fragile Fred
and MJD has proven a very productive duo, both for the Jags
and for fantasy owners. Too bad they split the points.
Jones-Drew is clearly the best option recording 1100 combined
yards and 9 TDs. MJD finished in the top 15 for the
secind year in a row, and should do so again. Fred Taylor is
considered fragile, but truth be known, but he's played in 15
games each of the last two seasons. In back to back seasons,
Fred has rushed for over 1100 yards and 5 TDs. Now at the
tender of 32, Fred is about to wrap up his career, but he's
still good enough to rank in the top 25. There's chance
that bruiser Greg Jones could vulture a few short yardage TDs...if
he can stay healthy.has
WR/TE-The Jags have a ton mediocre wideouts, finding one worth starting is the trick. The signing
of Jerry Porter at least gives them a number one. Porter
is a capable receiver, when his head is srewed on right, but
in the Jags scheme, it will be hard for him to break the top
20. The Jags like to spread the ball around, and with their
running game, it's unlikely they will have more than 20 TD
passes. With that in mind, Porter would have a great year if
he has 900 yards and 7 TDs. Opposite Porter is Reggie
Williams, who had 10 TDs last season on only 38 receptions.
Stud numbers in a TD only league, but he wasn't in the top 30
in combo leagues. Dennis Northcutt will move to the slot,
where he's better suited. Tight end Marcedes Lewis catches
just enough passes to be considered as a backup...a late
rounder.
Tennessee
QB- From a fantasy viewpoint, QB
Vince Young took a step backwards. Vince did throw for 2500
yards, but his 9 TDs and 17 INTs were rather ugly. Truth is,
his numbers were not surprising for a second year QB with an
under skilled set of receivers. Vince did finish in the top 20
of QBs, thanks largely to his almost 400 rushing yards and 3
TD scrambles. Vince should have a little better performance in
2008, but clearly not enough to be counted on as a full time
starter. Odds are he is best suited as a backup and spot
starter.
RB-Like the Jags, the Titans are
a run first offense. Last season they ranked 5th in yards
rushed, averaging over 130 yards per game. Top runner, LenDale
White racked up 1100 yards and 7 TDs. Good enough to land in
the top 20 and a nice number 2 RB. White is a minor health
risk, but his 300 carries, proves he can play through pain.
The Titans do split carries, but White should get the lion's
share. Behind LenDale, it will be either Chris Henry or rookie
Chris Johnson. Henry was not impressive last year, so the odds
are Johnson will get first crack at backing up White. But
Johnson is a little light for goal line duty, which adds value
to LenDale.
WR/TE-The Titans top twi
receivers, Justin Gage and Roydell Williams, return to the
starting lineup. For fantasy owners, there's little
difference. Both had 55 receptions for 700+ yards. Gage scored
twice, Williams only 4 times.Not enough for either of them to
rank inside the top 40, and not enough to be more than a
number 5 WR on your depth chart. The only receiver on the
Titans roster worth drafting is Alge Crumpler. The Titans make
good use of their tight ends and Alge is one of the best
they've had for awhile. Crumpler should rank just outside of
the top 10 and could be a real asset for those waiting on
filling this spot.
Denver
QB- In his second season, Denver QB Jay Cutler proved the Broncos were right in drafting him.
Cutler threw for 3500 yards, 20 TDs, and only 11 picks.
Ranking just outside the fantasy top 10 Jake beat back the
sophomore blues, and the future looks bright for this
youngster. Jay has a strong arm and has the backing of his
coach, so expect him to throw it 25-30 times every game.Cutler
ranks high on durability, and as such makes a perfect number 2
QB. If he could just increase those TD numbers, he could crack
the top 10, but as it is, be glad to draft him as your backup.
RB- It is expected that Denver
will always have a top flight running attack. And thought
fantasy owners will be confused going into the draft. With Travis Henry
cut loose due to personal issues, Selvin Young appears to be
the top candidate for fantasy stud. Young averaged 5.2 yards
per carry, and led the team in rushing, even though he only
started 8 games. Because of the uncertainty and depth at RB,
Young is dropping on draft boards. While he's not a
number 1 , he could be an interesting number 2, or at worst a
solid number 3. Part of the reluctance is the Broncos signed
Michael Pittman to carry part of the load. Plus Denver still
has Mike Bell and Cecil Sapp, both capable backs who could
steal carries. Oh, and don't think the Gnome overlooked
everyone's sleeper Ryan Torrain. While Torrain could be the
next Terrill Davis, if you want him, you'll have to draft him
early. 'cause everyone thinks he's a sleeper.
WR/TE-As the Broncos only real
starting WR last season, Brandon Marshall recorded 102 catches
for 1300 yards and 7 TDs. Brandon vaulted into the top 10 of
fantasy receivers and looks like he will stay there....as long
as he stays out of trouble. Marshall is a bit of a head case,
and he's been in enough trouble that he could be suspended if
he screws up again. While that will scare some off, it could
make him a sneaky pick. If Marshall makes it through the preseason,
he should be clear for this season. The Broncos signed a
couple of free agents to bolster their receiver squad.
Darrell Jackson is the one to watch. Jackson will most
certainly get the starting nod and if he can stay healthy, he
could break into the top 30. Expect most to overlook Jackson
and focus on 3rd down receiver Brandon Stokely. At least he's
a known commodity. At TE, the Bronocs use both Tony Scheffler
and Daniel Graham. Of the two, Scheffler caught twice as many
passes and TDs as Graham, good enough to rank Tony as the last
year's 10th best TE.
Kansas City
QB- Last season, the Chiefs used
Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle at QB. Most won't realize it,
but this combo put up good enough points to rank in the top
20. Too bad most of those points came from Huard, especially
since it looks like Croyle will be the starter. In limited
duty, Croyle completed 127 of 224 passes for 1200 yards and 6
TDs. Not bad from a second year QB, but not nearly enough to
want him on your fantasy team.Only consider him as a number
three option, and then only if you must.
RB-In very limited duty, Larry Johnson
rushed for 550 yards and 3 TDs. Because of his injuries and
his running style, look for Larry to take a dive on most draft
boards. Most boards have him 8-10, and this from a guy who
just last year was ranked either 3rd or 4th on all draft
boards. Clearly L.J. is a risk, but the rewards could be
great. If you take Larry, be sure to hancuff him with both
Kolby Smith and rookie Jamaal Charles. While Charles has a
nice upside, he's a little small for a goal line back.
WR/TE-The Chiefs have a veteran
pro bowler at tight end, and a possible stud at WR. After that
it's anyone's guess. Even though he's 32, Gonzo can still get
it done. With 99 receptions for 1172 yards, no TE had more
catches or yards than Tony G. Clearly he's the Chiefs' first
option and a top 5 TE in anyone's book. In his rookie season,
Dwayne Bowe clearly outperformed all expectations. Bowe had 70
catches and almost 1000 yards. Coupled with his 5 TDs, pushed
Bowe into the top 25 ranking of wide outs. Dwayne might have a
slight decline, but that would be more because of his QB, than
his own doing. Right now, Jeff Webb has the edge to be the
other starting lineup, but don't rule out arena football stud
Bobby Sippio or former Raven Devard Darling..
Oakland
QB- Oakland's QB situation has
been a mess for several years, ever since Rich Gannon's
injury. This year the Raiders will see what they have in last
year's number 1
overall pick JaMarcus Russell. Sure Russell has some skills,
but in very limited duty last season, he completed 36 of 66
passes for 373 yards, 2 TDs & 4 INTs. Nothing to brag
about.But then they did have the 31st ranked passing offense.
The 2008 season will be a year of growth for both the Raiders
and for anyone selecting JaMarcus. Someone has to draft
this guy, but his value will be limited.
RB-With one of the worse passing
attacks in the league, the Raiders had to depend on the ground
attack for any offense threat. With a running back carousel,
the Raiders ranked 6th in the league rushing the ball. Their
top rusher from 2007, Justin Fargas ranked up over 1000 yards,
and will most likely be overlooked, even though he's been
named the starter. That's because all the hype is pointing to
Darren McFadden. McFadden is a nifty runner with breakaway
speed. Some have said that McFadden is a better back than AP
(the good AP), but that's yet to be proven. Truth is, as good
as McFadden is, the Raider backfield is very crowded so he'll
only be a part timer to start the season. Remember they still
have bruiser Michael Bush, who could be the short yardage
vulture . With all
the hype about McFadden, both Fargas and Bush could be
bargains.
WR-The
Raiders' receivers put up 17 TDs last season, and probably
won't break 20 this year. Ronald Curry, last year's top
receiver will return as one starter. Joining him, will be
Javon Walker, who's already building his Raider reputation.
Javon had the pleasure of being mugged (allegedly) following a
visit to a Vegas Strip club. Hmmm. While Walker has the name,
neither he nor Curry, will break into the top 30, not with
their QB. If you take one, Curry is the safer bet. TE Zach
Miller is worth taking as a later round backup. He's good for
3-4 catches a game at 10 yards per reception.
San Diego
QB- With the addition of Chris
Chambers, Philip Rivers heated up the last part of the season.
In his final 7 games he threw 11 TDs. Funny how a real wideout
can help a QB. Rivers finished with 3100 yards and 21 TDs,
landing him solidly inside the top 20. With another year under
his belt, another year in Norm Turner's offense, and a real WR,
Rivers looks to be a solid fantasy backup, especially for
those that end up with the #10 QB.
RB-Ladainian is again number 1.
It's not often a fantasy player starts the year ranked number
1 in a postion and lives up to it. Granted L.T. didn't have 31
TDs like he did on 2006, but seriously....did you really
expect that? L.T. did have a combined 1950 yards and 18 TDs.
These numbers are similar to his 2005 & 2004 stats, and seem
to be a solid guesstimate for 2008. The loss of Michael Turner
is a plus for L.T. owners, as backup Darren Sproles is a
waterbug, and not a goal line back. Rookie Jacob Hester has
nice size, but is not enough of a pure runner to steal many
carries. This part fullback/part tailback is a nice slash type
player and is worth a late rounder. But, if you want to win...get L.T.
at any cost.
WR/TE-The Chargers number 1
receiver and arguably the tight end in the league is Antonio
Gates. Gates led the Chargers with 75 catches and 9 TDs.
Slightly better than his 2006 numbers, but hold on....the
Gnome is a little down on Gates. Sure he's a great
talent...but big guys with toe problems, means big problems.
Gates was hobbled during the post season, and could miss
opening day because of his toe. Because of this, be a little
wary of Gates, unless he's at a bargain. At wideout, the
Chargers finally have someone to challenge defenses in Chris
Chambers. In just 7 starts with the Chargers (he was on the
roster for 10) Chambers led the team in TDs from the WR spot
and only had 6 fewer catches than his teammate Vincent
Jackson. With a full year at San Diego, expect Chambers to
return as a top 20 receiver. Vincent
Jackson and #3 receiver Craig Davis look to be of some late
round value at best.
Dallas
b Last year, the only thing
hotter than Romo's arm was the young lady he was escorting
around after the game. Since drafting Jessica Simpson is a
different fantasy...take Romo and feel confident you have one
of the elite QBs in the league. Romo had 8 games where he
threw for greater than 275 yards and it wasn't until week 15
that he didn't throw at least 1 TD. All this from a guy who
has only started 26 games. With Romo at the helm, Dallas
finished the 4th best passing team in the league, and you can
be certain with him on your roster, you will be able to
compete with anyone...at least at the QB spot.
RB-Sure Julius Jones was #1 on
the Cowboys' depth chart, but face it Marion Barber was
Dallas' "starting" running back. For the second straight year,
this #2 running back has scored TDs in the double digits. With
Jones gone to Seattle, it will be Barber's chance to shine.
Expect Barber to crank out 1000 rushing yards, plus another
300 receiving yards and come close to his 2006 totals of 16 TDs.
The main thing standing in his way is Jerry Jones' "adopted"
son, Felix Jones. This rookie running back from Arkansas had
alumni Jerry drooling on draft day. Felix is used to splitting
time and some said he was more explosive than McFadden. While
that's doubtful, he's more than enough back to surpass Julius'
numbers and could be one of the top rookies of his class. A
must have handcuff if you draft Barber.
WR-For two years in a row, T.O.
has been the second ranked fantasy wide receiver. The Gnome
says go for three. If not for a monster season from Randy, T.O.
have claimed the number one spot. While there was a few games
he was held in check, for the most part, T.O. was unstoppable.
Forget his antics, draft T.O. (if you can't get Randy).
Opposite of 81 is Patrick Crayton. Crayton is good enough to
keep some of the heat of T.O., but not good enough to be
anything more than a fantasy spot starter. What the Cowboy's
will do with Terry Glenn is anyone's guess, so that makes him
a last round shot. TE Jason Witten, was by the Gnome's
calculations, the top fantasy TE. Recording 1145 yards and 7
TDs, Witten edged both Gates and Gonzo for the top spot. With
T.O. getting all the coverage, Witten is free to work the
middle, making him the Gnome's top TE in 2008.
New York Giants
QB- You would think more people
would give the Super Bowl MVP his due. Still...being Peyton's
little brother... casts a big shadow on Eli Manning. He may never be as good as
Peyton, but he's not chopped liver either. For the second
straight year Eli has ranked inside the
top 15, he has thrown for over 3000 yards and at least 23 TDs.
You would think that would earn him some respect. But this is
fantasy football, and the Gnome says "NO".Take away weeks 1 &
17, and Eli's best outing was 303 yards and 2 TDs. As a number
2, Eli is perfect, right along side Rivers and Garrard. If
he's your full time starter, hope he has a big 4th quarter.
RB-The Giants have a top running
game, too bad you never know who's going to carry the ball.
New York would love to pound it with Brandon Jacobs, but
Jacobs only played in parts of 11 games. Derrick Ward was
impressive, but he too, fell to injury. Third stringer Ahmad
Bradshaw was impressive in the post season, but is stuck in a
log jam. And don't forget RB turned FB Rueben Droughns, the
teams' leading TD rusher. This looks like Denver's backfield.
Since there's too many here to handcuff them all together,
Jacobs is the only real option. He should finish in the top
20... or you could just let someone else deal with this
headache.
WR/TE-From the start of last year,
Plaxico Burress was a "feast or famine" receiver. Week 1, he
had 144 yards and 3 scores; weeks 7-11, he had a total of
128 yards and no scores. Even though he had a injury induced
slump, Plax finished in the top 10, but is a little too injury
prone for the Gnome to rank him there again. Still if you need
a number 2 WR that can really boost your scoring, Plax could
be a nice pick. On the opposite side, 33 year old (sure it's
not 43??) Amani Toomer gives stability. Without a lot of
upside, Toomer is best looked at a 4th or 5th WR. Steven Smith
will be the 3rd receiver, and rookie Mario Manningham should
be on the dynasty radar. Since the Giants have parted ways
with Shockey, expect Kevin Boss to be a hot commodity. While
he doesn't have Shockey's skills, he could put up 450 yards
and 5 TDs.
Philadelphia
QB- The Gnome readily admits a
level of confusion surrounding Dovovan McNabb. McNabb is a
talented QB, who could easily crack the top 5. He's just as
likely to crack a rib. During the last 4 weeks of 2007, McNabb
put up as many points as anyone except for Brady. The problem
was, he was coming back from an injury that had knocked him
out weeks 12 & 13. McNabb put up good enough numbers in 13
games to rank just outside of the top10, 3300 yards & 19 TDs,
so you can't overlook him. In fact, if he plays a full 16, he
should put up 3800 & 25 TDs, but that's a big IF. With injury
concerns, McNabb will fall in most drafts, so if you wait for
a QB, he's a great option. Just be sure to get a top 15
backup.
RB-Brian Westbrook accounted for
a higher percentage of his team's offense than any other
back in the league. Westbrook was both the Eagles number one
rusher and their number one receiver. As such, only L.T.
outscored Westbrook, making him the second best back in
fantasy football. It would have been even closer if not for
week 15 last minute kneel down at the 1 versus the Cowboys.
Smart play the had fantasy owners cursing Westbrook's
intelligence. While there's always a clod of injury hanging
over his head, Westbrook is the back to get if you miss out on
the L.T. sweepstakes. Behind Brian, Correll Buckhalter and
Tony Hunt will via for carries. Either could vulture a couple
of short yardage TDs, but Brian is too valuable to pull on 3rd
and goal, even if it's from the 1.
WR/TE-Reggie Brown and Kevin
Curtis will start at wide receivers, and of the two Curtis has
more value. Entering his 4th season, Brown has never quite
lived up to expectations. Even though he had the best season
of his career, receptions wise, he couldn't break into the top
30. It was newcomer Kevin Curtis who got all the yards, and
finished in the top 20. The sneaky part about this duo, is
that during the last six weeks, they scored almost exactly the
same number of points, meaning Brown could be a sneaky pick. The Eagles
plan on bringing rookie DeSean Jackson slowly into the
fold, so unless you get points for return yards or are in a
dynasty league, pass on him. TE L.J. Smith missed about half
the season, and while talented, can't be considered more than
a backup.
Washington
QB- The Gnome was surprised to
see Jason
Campbell ranked in the top 20, but was that because of Jason's
play or because of how bad all the other QBs played. Campbell
only threw for 2700 yards and 12 TDs, so if you had to start
him, you counted your blessing every point he put up. And if
you thought 2007 was rough, 2008 could be worse.With a new
coach, and brand new offense, it is hard to believe that
Campbell will improve very much. Ranking Campbell inside the
top 20 just doesn't sit well with the Gnome, so if you need a
number one backup, look elsewhere.
RB-Clinton Portis had a great 2007 season
rushing for 1200 yards and 11 TDs. The Redskins decided that
RBBC wasn't the best option and rode Portis to a top 5 fantasy
position. But that was last year under Gibbs. With Zorn, that
might not be the case. Chances are, Portis will see a slight
dip in his production, but not enough to drop him out of the
top 10. Portis is a nice receiver out of the backfield so the
"West Coast" Redskins should feel comfortable throwing him the
ball.. Since Zorn came from Seattle, let's hope he stays with
the one back mentality. Either way Ladell Betts is a must have
handcuff for Portis.
WR/TE -When this section starts
with an overview of the TE spot, you the wodeouts are week. TE
Chris Cooley was the 'Skins top receiver and was a top 5 guy
at his spot. Cooley edged out Dallas Clark and should be
considered one of the elite TEs in fantasy football. The move
to the West Coast offense won't hurt him and since he's their
best option, his numbers won't fall. At WR, Santana Moss
failed to crack the top 40 and he was there best wideout. Moss
is normally feast or famine and last year was no
different...except more famine. Almost half his yearly points
were scored in 2 games. The best thing you can say Randle El
and his 1 TD, is that there's no one on the roster to beat him
out of the starting role.
Chicago
QB- They flipped a coin to decide
which QB would start training camp as the starter. The last time a
team did that, the winner of the coin toss (Charlie Frye) lasted only a half. Well, Rex won the coin toss
and odds are he won't last too long either. There is a lot of
speculation that Kyle Orton will be the starter, sooner rather
than later. Either way, this is not a good situation. The best
thing that could happen for fantasy owners is that one of
these two gets hurt, but the odds are, Rex will start week 1
and Orton will play the majority of the games. Best to stay
away.
RB-The Bears drafted Matt Forte
in the second in hopes of getting a real running back.
Clearly,
Cedric Benson wasn't the answer. Since the Bears have down
such a "great" job drafting running backs of late, they hedged
their bets and signed Lions' cast off Kevin Jones. Of
the two, Jones will probably get the first crack at the
starting role. It's hard not to go with the experienced back.
Jones is a moderately capable back that should be able to hold
onto the starting role until he gets hurt, say week 6. After
that it will be Forte's job. Matt is a taller runner and at
6'2" 222 you do wonder how he will handle the rigors of the
NFL. Still, he has a nice burst and should be a major upgrade
to anyone the Bears had last season when they had the 30th
ranked rushing attack.
WR/TE-Bernard Berrian and Mushin
Muhammad are out and looks like Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker
will be the starters. In his 5 season in the NFL, Lloyd has
had exactly 130 catches, and last year he only managed 2.
Marty Booker returns to Chicago after a moderately successful
4 seasons. The combination of these two receivers and a below
average QB (either Rex or Kyle) and you end up with a shoddy
passing attack. Devon Hester might be able to breath some life
into this squad if he ever reports to training camp.The best
receivers on the team look to be TEs Greg Olsen and Desmond
Clark. While Olsen is the sexier pick, veteran Desmond Clark
was more productive last season. As it is, none if the Bears'
receivers are worth more than a lste round pick at best.
Detroit
QB- QB Jon Kitna started hot last
season in Mike Martz's offense, and then both hit a few bumps
in the road. Martz is now in San Fran and Kitna will probably
be throttled back from his 550 attempts and 4000 yards. Ranked
13th last season, Kitna's biggest problem was his offensive
line. Being sacked 51 times will give any QB happy feet.
Without Matrz, the Lions will be a little more conservative so
expect Kitna's attempts to to fall. But that may not be a bad
thing, if the O-line can give him more time. Kitna looks
like a top 15 QB, but not good enough to be a fulltime fantasy
starter.
RB-For Detroit, it looks like
Tatum Bell will open the season as the Lions' number one back,
at least for a few weeks. Bell was drafted in '04
by the Broncos because of his speed. While Bell still has the
speed, his durability has always been the the question. Bell
is a great change of pace back, but it's unlikely that Tatum
could be a 20 carries a game back That honor will fall on
rookie Kevin Smith. Smith was a workhorse back at UCF and the
Lions drafted him in hopes that he could be their every down
back. In his final year at UCF, Smith had 450 carries....now
that's a workhorse. The Gnome has Smith ranked in the top 2 of
rookie RBs (tied with Jonathan Stewart), for redraft leagues.
Sure McFadden has the most upside for dynasty leaguers, for
2008.take a good look at RB Kevan Smith.
WR/TE-The combination of Roy Williams and
Calvin Johnson is one of the better up and coming receiver
duos in the league, especially when it comes to stretching the
field. Both averaged over 13 yards per reception. and both
topped 750. Of the two, Williams has more fantasy value, but
only by a slim margin. Roy should be ranked inside the top 30,
while Johnson shuld only be 5 or 6 slots behind him....which
makes Calvin a bit of a sneaky pick as few realize how close
to Williams he really is. Mike Furrey will most likely
fill the number 3 WR spot, thanks largely to Shaun McDonald's
knee injury. If McDonald does not go on the PUP to start the
season, he has some value in deeper drafts. The Lions have not
been known for using the TEs of late. QB Kitna had more
receiving yards than starting TE Dan Campbell.
Green Bay
QB- Well, Number 4 is gone
(promised not to mention him) so it's Aaron Rodgers' show.
It's hard to predict exactly how Aaron will perform since he's
only thrown 60 passes in the last 3 years. Sure Rodgers looked
good in his one game last year against the Cowboys. Anyone
remember Scott Mitchell? The truth is the Cowboys had spent
all week preparing to face Number 4, and if you don't think
film study is valuable, ask Peyton. It's assumed Aaron will do
O.K., but that's a little iffy at best. Most will rank Aaron
in the top 15, but that's a little hopeful. Rodgers just
hasn't had that many reps for the Gnome to rank him that him.
And then there's the injury concern. Rodgers hasn't started a
single game and he's missed parts of four seasons due to
injuries. Drafting Rodgers is a gamble at best, but he could
be a viable backup, just make certain you have at least three
QBs.
RB-Prior to week 8, Ryan
Grant only had 11 touches. For him to finish in the top 15 was
amazing. In fact he was a top 5 back for the last half of the
season. Based on how well he performed there was some worries
about an extended holdout, but that's been worked out and it
looks like Grant will be paid for his performance. With an
unproven QB, Grant will be the most important part of the
offense, and he should put up numbers good enough for anyone
to consider him a number 1 RB. Numbers like 300 touches, 1400
combined yards and 10 TDs seem likely. Just as long as Brandon
Jackson doesn't cut into his playing time. Grant's holdout did
open the door for this to happen, at least a little bit and
Jackson has stepped up to the task. Definitely grab Jacksonas
a handcuff and hope it doesn't turn into a RBBC.
WR/TE-If Aaron Rodgers finishes better than
expected, it's because he has top flight wideouts. Last year
both Donald Driver and Greg Jennings finished in the top 30 of
receivers. Driver had 82 catches, 1048 yards, but only 2 TDs.
Jennings, on the other hand , only had 53 receptions but 12
TDs. 2008 should show a more even distribution of TDs raising
Driver's value a bit and dropping Jennings a few slots. The
lack of experience on Rodgers part could also cost both a
couple of slots. James Jones will fill the 3rd receiver slot,
but keep an eye on rookie Jordie Nelson who could push Jones
and has value to dynasty leaguers. TE Donald Lee finished 2007 in the top
10 of tight ends thanks to his 6 TDs. As with the other
receivers, Lee's value will drop at least a couple of slots
due to his QB.
Minnesota
QB- It hurts the Gnome to say
this, but Vikings QB Tavaris Jackson is better than you think.
Jackson ranked in the top 20 and over the last six weeks was a
top 10 QB. With everyone focused on the Vikings running game,
Jackson threw for almost 1200 yards and 7 TDs during the final
6 weeks of the season. During this time he also rushed for 165
yards and 2 TDs So if you want a sneaky pick, draft Jackson as
your number 3 QB; you just might have a solid number 2.
RB-Everywhere you look, Adrian
Peterson is ranked just behind L.T. While AP had a super 2007,
is he really that good? Throw stones if you what, but the
Gnome says no, not quite yet. Sure A.P. had some monster
games, but he also had less than 50 yards in 4 of his last 6
games. In truth, Peterson only had 6 above average games. But
when this guy goes off, he really goes off. A.P. is a solid
top 10, but top 2 is a bit of a stretch. Especially while the
Vikes still have Chester Taylor around. Chester finished
inside the top 25 and shouldn't be overlooked. Chester is a
must have handcuff for A.P., but don't wait too long
'cause he's a viable number 3 RB on most teams.
WR/TE-When a teams top receiver
only had 647 receiving yards, and 3 TDs, you know Fantasy
owners should look elsewhere. Those were Bobby Wade's numbers
last year, and if you played any of the Vikings receivers, you
know how weak this crew was. To bolster this squad, the Vikes
brought in Bernard Berrian, formerly of the Bears. Berrian has
moderate value as a number 3 Fantasy WR, and should
finish right around the top 30. Good numbers for him would be
900 yards and 6 TDs, similar to what he did in Chicago
(similar below average QB). Opposite Berrain is a bit of a
guess, but odds favor Sydney Rice. This 2007 seconder has more
potential then anyone he's battling for the starting spot, and
that should give him the nod. TE Visanthe Shiancoe will be
lucky to top the 400 yard mark and is a borderline waiver wire
pickup.
Atlanta
QB- The Vick era is done in the
ATL, but when does the Matt Ryan era start? The Gnome says not soon
enough. The Falcons made Matt Ryan the first signal caller in
the draft and this is one of those rare occasions where he
should be the starter from day. Face it, he's having to
compete against Chris Redman and Joey Harrington. If anyone
thought these guys had value, they wouldn't be on the Falcons
roster. Sure rookie QBs struggle, but Ryan sure looks like a
better option than these two "never-weres". Of course that
won't happen. Most likely, Redman will get the starting nod
for the first six weeks. Then when Atlanta is 1 -5 they will
decide it's time for a change. Hey Guys, it's time for a
change now, not 6 weeks into the season. For Dynasty leagues,
Ryan looks like a medium prospect, but if you have to start
him in 2008, whoa is you.
RB-Without much at QB, the
Falcons will depend on the ground attack to generate the
points. Free agent Michael Turner, formerly of the Charges,
will be there go to guy. Turner was impressive in limited duty
behind L.T., but he's never been a full time back. While he
should rank as a top 15 back, there's a strong chance that he
will breakdown by mid-season. In fact he's still nursing a
shoulder injury from his fill-in duty late last season. Change
of pace back Jerious Norwood is a threat to break it at
anytime, but is only good for 10-11 touches a game. If Turner
gets nicked, look for Jason Snelling to be a sneaking
replacement. Snelling is a big bruiser who could steal goal
line carries and be a nice compliment to Norwood, if something
happens to Turner.
WR-With questions at QB, the
Falcons receivers are again an iffy bunch. Roddy White did
have a break out year, and should start the year out pretty
good if Redman is the starter. Roddy was a top 20 receiver who
piled up the points the last six weeks of the season. If you
draft him, look to trade him before Ryan takes over at QB.At
the other spot, the Falcons originally had Joe Horn penciled
in, but Joe is so old they couldn't give him away. Truth is,
he probably never was a starter, they just bumped him up on
the depth chart in hopes of moving him. Keep an eye on Laurent
Robinson. Robinson has would make a nice compliment to White
if they had a veteran QB. In what ened up being a swap of
tightends, the Falcons let Alge Crumpler go to the Titans, and
the Falcons ended up with Titans castoff Ben Hartsock. Not a
fair "trade" by any means, but Hartsock will be good enough to
be a late round backup.
Carolina
QB- Jake Delhomme started 2007
out with a bang, racking up 500 yards and 6 TDs in his first 2
games with a QB ratinging of 111.. Then out went the elbow and
both his and the Panthers' season was over. Early reports are
that Jake is back to 100% and if that is true, look out. Jake
could be a draft day steal. The Panthers only have a middle of
the pack running attack, so they will have to throw to win and
if Jake is healthy, he could put up solid numbers. It's a real
gamble to take him as your number 1, but as a backup with a
big upside, don't overlook Jake, even if everyone else
RB-The Panthers running attack
was truly an RBBC, and it showed. Starter Deshaun Foster had
100 more carries than backup DeAngelo Williams, but it only
netted him an extra 100 yards. Well, the Panthers have cut
ties with Foster, and in his place drafted Jonathan Stewart.
The Panthers hope to put together a "Thunder & Lightning"
combination. While Williams has been named the starter, look
for the Panthers running attack to mimic the Jags. Both backs
will get their share of touches, but the backup, Stewart, will
get the goal line carries. For this reason, bump Stewart up
and lower Williams value. If both can stay healthy, Williams
should make 1000 yards, while Stewart has the best chance at
10 TDs.
WR/TE-Too bad Steve Smith's best QB
last season was a guy named Vinny. After the first two weeks
of the season, Steve Smith was the number 1 ranked fantasy WR,
then Jake went down, and so did Smith's points. That he
finished in the top 20 is tribute solely to his explosiveness. With
a healthy Delhomme, Smith should again return to his top 5
position. To offset their lack of performance from the other
WR spot, the Panthers brought back Mushin Mohammad and
added free agent D.J.Hackett. Right now Mushin, has the inside
track to starter, with Hackett being the 3rd down receiver.
Most will overlook Mushin, because of his age, but the built
in chemistry with Delhomme, makes him a receiver that could
break the top 30. Hackett is mostly a fill in, but could jump
in value if a starting spot opens. TE Jeff King had 400 yards
and 2 TDs last season, but will only improve slightly, mostly
because of all the passes going to the wideouts.
New Orleans
QB- Drew Brees was horrible to
start the 2007 season. In his first four games, he threw 9
INTs, and only1 TD. Then he hit the light switch and suddenly
he was a different QB. Not only did he play well enough in the
next 12 games to be ranked in the top 5 for the season, but he
threw 27 TDs in those 12 games. Talk about a turnaround. Brees
is a very capable QB and has to be ranked in the top 5. He
should have all his weapons healthy to start the season and
the addition of a real TE, makes him a hot commodity. If you
can't get Brady and are worried about Peyton's knee, Brees is
someone to strongly consider.
RB- A lot of owners were counting
on a Reggie Bush to have a break out year. Instead it was a
disaster. The loss of . Deuce McAllister, which at first,
looked like a boon for
Reggie, proved instead to be his undoing. Reggie just couldn't
carry the load by himself. In fact it had NFL insiders
rethinking how wise the Texans were in drafting Mario
Williams. Reggie did finish in the top 25, but his fantasy
numbers took a dip from his rookie season. Hopefully, 2008
will be better for both Bush and the Saints. First, Deuce is
back and looking better than ever. His return will free Bush
up to be the back he's accustomed to being, the flashy,
exciting back but not an every down back. While it's
great for the Saints, fantasy owners will again face a messy
RBBC. On the plus side, both backs' value will drop for 2007,
at least a little.
WR-For New Orleans, and for
fantasy owners, Marques Colston was the one Saint that lived
up to his billing. Colston had 1200 yards and 11 TDs and
finshed in the top 10 of receivers.. Colston did have his ups
and downs, thanks mostly due to Brees' slow start. All told,
he was well worth a high selection, and he will be so again.
If Brees performs up to expectations, then Colston has a
chance to break into the top 5. Opposite Colston will most
likely be Devery Henderson, but keep an eye on David Patten.
The Saints coaching staff is not in love with Henderson and
would replace him if someone would step up. Whoever starts, it
will be hard for them to rank better than a number 5 WR,
especially now that the Saints have a real TE in Jeremy
Shockey. The addition of Shockey gives the Saints
another top weapon. For fantasy owners, the move from the Big
Apple to the Big Easy places Shockey back in the top 5 of
tight ends....as long as he remains healthy.
Tampa Bay
QB- Jeff Garcia had a very
respectable season...for a backup fantasy QB. Garcia was
charged by head coach Gruden to manage the offense, and that's
exactly what he did. In slightly more than 13 games he tossed
13 TDs for 2400 yards and only had 4 INTs. Although he missed
3 games, Garcia still finished inside the top 20. No longer a
spring chicken, Garcia's better days are behind him, but he's
still good enough to be a solid fantasy backup. As long a the
Bucs just want him to manage the offense, it will be hard for
him to put up more than 200 yards and 2 TDs in any given game.
RB-Take about fantasy surprises.
They happen every year and Earnest Graham was certainly one in
2007. Even though he had been on the roster for for 4 years,
and had been a preseason monster, Graham had only amassed 60
touches prior to the loss of Carnell Williams. When the Caddy
went down, Graham burst onto the scene and finished the year
just outside the top 10, rushing for almost 900 yards and 10 TDs. As a nice combo back, Graham was the team's 3rd best
receiver with 49 catches. Graham will return as the starter in
2008, and should put up similar numbers. Graham should be be a
pretty consistent RB2; at the end of last season, hewent
through a stretch where he scored a TD in six straight weeks.
Sure the Bucs brought back veteran Warrick Dunn, but at 33
it's hard to image Dunn getting more than a few touches a
game. And the Caddy? Look for Williams to start the season on
the PUP and miss at least the first six games, if not more.
Still, he could be worth a very late rounder.
WR/TE-Once again, Joey
Galloway was Bucs top fantasy receiver. Just how old is this
guy? How about 36? Galloway has performed surprisingly well
over the past few years ranking in the top 20 three years in a
row. But be careful. Joey has tweaked a groin muscle and at
36, it may take a while to recover. This was the same thing
that happened in 2004 and he missed 6 games. Most likely the
Bucs will go easy on him during the preseason. At the other
spot, Ike Hilliard who lead the team in receptions, could
retain his starting spot, despite the fact that he plays like
he's Joey's older brother. The Bucs did sign Antonio Bryant,
who didn't play a down in 2007, and still have under achiever
Michael Clayton. Not a real impressive squad, and with the
Bucs conservative passing attack, no one worth having except
at the end of your bench. The same goes for TEs Alex Smith,
Ben Troupe, and Jerramy Stevens.
Arizona
QB- Here's a crazy stat. The
number one fantasy QB over the last six weeks of 2007 was Kurt
Warner. Kurt finished in the top 10 for the whole season and
won't even be a starter.Go figure.The Cards will once again
hand the reigns over to Matt Leinart, at least until the game
is close. Talk about a fantasy nightmare...QB by
committee. In his five starts Matt averaged little better than
100 yards per game and only threw 2 TDs in those games. Now
that is ugly. With Kurt coming off the bench to bail him out,
it's hard to draft either one of these guys and impossible to
think about starting them. Until this picture clears up...stay
away.
RB-The Edge just turned 30, how
much does he have left? In some ways he seems like an old 30,
but his 2007 numbers speak a different story. For the fifth
year in a row James has had over 300 carries and 1100+ yards.
Guess that would make anyone feel old. Even though he finished
in the top 10, you have to feel a little shakey having him as
your number 2 RB. James should produce, but the Gnome would
prefer drafting someone with less mileage. ***Sleeper
Alert***Sleeper Alert**** Everyone in the world has Tim
Hightower listed as a sleeper. If you want a 3rd string backup
draft him early.
WR/TE-The combination of Anquan
Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald remain two of the most talented, most
physically gifted receivers in the league. But they have a
problem, their QB. If Matt only threw 1 TD in the first four
games, how well did these guys perform? When Warner is at the
helm, these guys are studs, when he's not, there not worth
starting. Often they
are lumped together, but there is a difference. Boldin is more
of a big play receiver while Fitz is their got to guy in the
red zone. Because of that, Fitz will have more TDs and Boldin
will have a bigger average per reception. When it comes to
ranking them, Fitz gets the edge. Also Bolding is nursing a
hammy which could be a real show stopper. Special teamer Steve
Breaston should play a more important role and could find
himself starting if either go down. Dynasty leaguers should
take a look at Early Doucet. Boldin probably won't be back
next year and Doucet is a talent. At TE, Leonard Pope is used
more as a tackle but did have 5 TDs, when Warner was starting.
San Francisco
QB- Welcome to the Mike
Matrz era. Martz's offense is usually a fantasy boon for
quarterbacks in it. Question is, which SanFran QB will it be?
The Niners have a lot invested in Alex Smith and it seems
logical he would get the first shot, but backup Shaun Hill
better at the end of the season than Alex ever did. Oh and if
that's not enough, the Niners brought in former Lion J.T.
O'Sullivan. J.T. is familiar with Martz's offense but
will have to impress Head Coach Mike Nolan if he hope to see
ant playing time. This is an ugly situation and to compound
matters, Mike Nolan's job is probably on the line. With Martz
already on staff, if the Niners struggle, Nolan could be out
before season end. Odds are they will start the season with
Smith, but expect a short hook is he doesn't catch fire,
especially with Nolan's job on the line.
RB-While Martz offense is
thought of as a pass happy attack, there's plenty of
touches for the RB. Just look at Marshall Faulk and Steven
Jackson when Martz was with the Rams. Martz's offense is big
on using the back on swing passes and pounding from inside the
five. How else did Marshall get all those TDs? If there's any
questions on how Frank Gore will perform, put those to rest.
Martz plans on using Gore as the centerpiece of the offense
and if he isn't overused, and stays healthy, this could be his
biggest year yet. Gore looks like a solid top 5 RB and is
someone who could challenge L.T. for the top spot. Backing up
Gore is Deshaun Foster, formerly of the Panthers. Foster is
not quite washed up, but he's no threat either. Look at him as
a late round handcuff.
WR/TE-Because of Martz,
there will be a lot on interest around the Niners receivers. The Niners
brought in a couple of outsiders to revamp an anemic squad.
They signed Bryant Johnson of the Cardinals and Martz'a old
bud Isaac Bruce. Right now, it looks like this will be the
starting combo, especially considering Bruce's familiarity with
the offense. That leaves Arnaz Battle to pick up the Az Hakim
role, if he can swallow his pride and focus on the job. Of the
three, Bryant Johnson looks to have the most fantasy value.
Regardless, it will be hard for any of the three to finish in
the top twenty, thanks largely to their questions at QB. TE
Vernon Davis is too talented for Martz not to use him and he
will also cut into the wide receivers value. Davis has a shot
at the top 10, if they can figure out just how he fits in this
new scheme.
Seattle
QB- You may not realize it, but
2007 was a career year for Matt Hasselbeck. Matt set personal
bests in attempts, yards, and TDs. With such a fine year, Matt
easily finished in the top 10. Two things helped attribute to
Hasselbeck's strong performance. First, he played in all 16
games. Matt normally misses a game or two but not so last
season. Secondly, and more importantly was the Seahawks below
average rushing attack. Traditionally, the Seahawks pond it in
from the red zone, but not so last season. If not for Matt's
strong performance, the Seahawks would never had made it to
the playoffs. Since it looks like this could be Coach
Holmgren's last season, expect the Seahawks to rally for
another division crown. Matt should again be a top 10 QB
throwing for at least 3500 yards and 25 scores.
RB-Good bye Shaun Alexander,
hello running back by committee. Shaun looked completely
washed up last year, so the Seahowks cut their ties with him
and brought in Julius Jones of the Cowboys.It strongly looks
like both Jones and Maurice Morris will evenly split carries.
Coach Holgrem has gone as far as saying he has two starting
running backs. In fantasy football, that means no starting
running back. Hello RBBC. It is unlikely that either back will
finish in the top 30, unless one has a season ending injury.
Even then that's questionable as the Seahawks have also signed
T.J. Duckett for short yardage. For TD only leagues is
possible that Duckett could be the pick here as neither Jones
or Morris are known for their goaline prowess.
WR/TE-With Hasslebeck's
solid performance last season, you would think the Seahawks
would have at least 1 top 15 receiver, but not so. WR Bobby
Engram was clearly Matt's top receiver and he was supposed to
be their third down receiver. Much of this inconsistency is
due to Deion Branch's battle with injuries. Branch missed five
games last year and the odds are he could start the season on
the PUP, missing the first six weeks. This means it will be up
to Engram and Nate Burleson to carry the load and right now
Engram is holding out. Talk about an ugly situation.Assuming
Engram shows up, he has to be their top fantasy option.
With 94 catches, Engram's value jumps up even more in PPR
leagues. Burleson did have more TDs (9), but only has 50
catches. The top TE from 2007 still on the roster is Will
Heller, who only had 13 receptions. This makes room for rookie
John Carlson. Carlson is an old school TE, a solid blocker
with good enough hands and speed to be a mild threat. At least
good enough to be an every down tight end.
St. Louis
QB- Talk about a rough year. Marc Bulger
was supposed to be a top tier QB, but after week 2 Bulger
really struggled. Injuries and inconsistancy plagued Bulger
for the most of the year and really caused his stock to drop
this year. Bulger only managed 11 TDs to his 15 INTs. Not at
all what was expected. Instead of being a top 10 QB, he
plumented out of the top 20 in 2007, and his 2008 rankings
aren't much better. Everyone is looking at Bulger as fantasy
backup who is almost done. But if he can stay healthy, you
might have something special. Backing up Bulger is one time
Ram, Trent Green. Wonder if he remembers his time in St. Louis
after all those concussions.
RB-Like Bulger, Steven Jackson
missed the mark in 2007. Injuries caused him to miss four
games early in the season, and the Rams offensive woes, meant
it was week 8 before he scored his first TD. Instead of
competiting for L.T.'s crown, Jackson failed to finish in the
top 15 RBs. Once he got going, he did turn it around and he
should be a force in 2008. That is....if he reports to camp.
Right now, Jackson is in a contract dispute and holding out.
Hopefully he will just miss enough training camp to be fresh
when the season starts, because the Rams really need him.
Former Saint Antonio Pittman looks to backup Jackson, and
could see his value increase the longer Jackson sits. Still it
would be rare for a top notch back to sit out opening day, so
drafting Jackson as a top 5 back is moderately safe...but keep
up with the news.
WR/TE-As with the other Rams studs, Tory Holt
had a drop in performance in 2007, at least in the rankings.
Holt, considered a top 5 WR, didn't finish in the top 10, even
though he had the same number of catches and yards as in 2006.
That is largely due to fewer TDs, and a jump in the numbers
for other receivers. Because his fantasy value fell in 2007,
and because of this age (32), peple are letting him slide down
the ir boards. Don't make that mistake. Holt should easily
have 90 catches and 1200 yards with 8 TDs. Good enough numbers
to push him back in the top 10. Issac Bruce is gone, so Drew
Bennett should get the starting nod at the other spot. Bennett
was almost invisible last year and needs to step it up to
prove he's worth the money the Rams spent on him. Dane Looker
and Reche Caldwell will battle for the third receiver spot.
Rookie Donnie Avery has a way to go and a cracked bone in his
pelvis has him sidelined for now. TE Randy McMichael had the
worst fantasy year of his career and still finished in the top
20. In 2008, his numbers should improve enough to make him one
of the top backups and a viable spot starter.
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